鳍上环志的企鹅作为气候变化指示者的可靠性收到质疑

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Reliability of flipper-banded penguins as indicators of climate change

翅膀环志的企鹅作为气候变化指示者的可靠性受到质疑

《自然》杂志1月13号的封面故事报道了法国和挪威学者对环志可能对企鹅造成的影响的研究。

2007年，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会突显了研究海洋生态系统对气候变化响应的迫切需要．南冰洋处于高纬度地区，所以这里生态系统受到全球变暖的影响应该非常显著．将这个生产力颇高的地区的顶级捕食者（如企鹅）作为综合指示者可以帮助我们评估气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响．

然而现在大多数可用的关于企鹅种群动态的数据资料都建立在环志这个有争议的手段的基础上．尽管一些研究已经发现环志的有害作用，但从一些短期（如一年）的研究中的仍可推断出环志方案广泛使用的趋势仍在继续，而且正是这些数据被用来预测环境变化对自然种群的影响．

法国和挪威的研究人员经过十年的跟踪调查，发现与没有环志的同类相比，环志的皇企鹅(Aptenodytes patagonicus)的存活率降低了16%，繁殖率降低了39%．证明了环志巨大的长期影响，反驳了鸟类最终会习惯环志的假定．虽然即使在十年后，被环志的鸟类仍然会回到研究点进行繁殖，但是（与未环志的同类比起来）时间上更迟，而且每次觅食的时间也更长．

研究者称他们的主要发现为：被环志企鹅对气候变化（如海面温度和南方涛动指数的变化）的响应不能代表那些没有被环志的同类．称只有长期的观测调查才能评估环志对企鹅生活史主要特点的影响，他们对现在仍在使用的环志方案表示了质疑，认为应该重新考虑在环志基础上收集的数据是否合适用来分析气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响．

链接: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v469/n7329/full/nature09630.html

摘要:

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted an urgent need to assess the responses of marine ecosystems to climate change1. Because they lie in a high-latitude region, the Southern Ocean ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected by global warming. Using top predators of this highly productive ocean2 (such as penguins) as integrative indicators may help us assess the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems3, 4. Yet most available information on penguin population dynamics is based on the controversial use of flipper banding. Although some reports have found the effects of flipper bands to be deleterious5, 6, 7, 8, some short-term (one-year) studies have concluded otherwise9, 10, 11, resulting in the continuation of extensive banding schemes and the use of data sets thus collected to predict climate impact on natural populations12, 13. Here we show that banding of free-ranging king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) impairs both survival and reproduction, ultimately affecting population growth rate. Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study, banded birds produced 39% fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16% lower than non-banded birds, demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded6, 12. Indeed, banded birds still arrived later for breeding at the study site and had longer foraging trips even after 10 years. One of our major findings is that responses of flipper-banded penguins to climate variability (that is, changes in sea surface temperature and in the Southern Oscillation index) differ from those of non-banded birds. We show that only long-term investigations may allow an evaluation of the impact of flipper bands and that every major life-history trait can be affected, calling into question the banding schemes still going on. In addition, our understanding of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems based on flipper-band data should be reconsidered.